The Next Big Crisis
Hard times create strong men.
Hard men create good times.
Good times create weak men.
Weak men create hard times.
Taking The Stairs 💪
In the face of a storm, two animals react differently: the cow and the buffalo.
The cow, sensing danger, runs away from the storm, only to be chased and engulfed by it for longer. The buffalo, bold and determined, charges directly into the storm, passing through it quickly and emerging on the other side.
Just as a gazelle instinctively knows from birth that it is prey to the lion—the undisputed king of the jungle—the cow and buffalo also have deeply ingrained behaviors, almost like an algorithm coded into their DNA: "if this, then that." They don’t question it; they simply act.
Humans? We have a choice. We get to write the code of our own story.
Unlike the buffalo, we don’t need a herd to make it through the storm—but having others beside us, willing to charge through or support us along the way, sure makes the journey a whole lot better to endure the adversity.
The U.S. Crisis 😳
We were promised a “Golden Age” under this administration, but many people seem to feel more like it is fool’s gold.
President Trump’s address to Congress last night painted a bold vision—continue to slash government employees & regulations, along with promised tax cuts to corporations and everyday people.
Trump had the room popping up and down like a Catholic mass on speed—half the crowd standing, half sitting, some even walking out like an Irish goodbye, while some made it very clear they were leaving (or more so forced to leave). To hopefully deflect his recent vaccine tweets, he shouted out professional vocalist, RFK Jr. for the “Make America Healthy Again” and bring Elon’s chainsaw to cut DEI programs.
He doubled down on energy production to wrestle inflation into a Joe Rogan submission— drill baby, drill! Poppy believes we should probably be a bit less focused on stamping the American flag on Mars, but rather focus on important things down here on Earth, because the HAARP machine seems to be forecasting less “golden age” & more “hold onto your MAGA hats— it’s a storm-a-brewin’
The Tide is Turning 🌊
The "4th Turning" is a theory from William Strauss and Neil Howe's book, describing a cyclical pattern in American history with four phases: High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis. Each phase lasts about 20-25 years, forming an 80-100 year cycle.
History may not repeat itself, but it oftentimes rhymes.
Current Status: Are We in the 4th Turning?
Crisis (Fourth Turning): The most perilous phase, involving a major crisis threatening national survival, requiring collective action, and often resulting in institutional rebuilding. Historical examples include the American Revolution, Civil War, and the Great Depression/World War II period.
Signs We’re in a 4th Turning ‘Crisis’:
Economic Woes: Post-COVID job losses & employment transformation, fear and uncertainty in recent market volatility, high cost of living (inflation), and record national & consumer debt.
Political Divide: Populist surges and extremism show trust in institutions crumbling.
Social Shake-Up: Protests over race, migrants, climate, and justice scream for big change.
Global Tensions: Ukraine/Russia and Hamas/Israel war, NATOP & BRICS friction, and nationalism fuel worldwide unease.
Tech Turmoil: AI and tech advances disrupt jobs and privacy, shaking things up.
Climate Chaos: Rising disasters and complications with insurance providers signal a survival threat.
The World Trade Center Bombing as a 4th Generational Turning Point
Writers have noticed that every 20-25 years, culture and politics shift in the US and Europe, often sparked by big events like 9/11.
→ Check out this study: The World Trade Center Bombing as a 4th Generational Turning Point by by Ted Goertzel at Rutgers University.
Tariff Trade War 💣
Economic warfare is a broad category that includes trade wars & other economic conflicts between countries.
Canada, Mexico & China have all announced retaliation against Trump’s Tariffs.
What the hell is going on?!
Trump announced 25% Tariffs on Mexico & Canada. And 10% on China. In short, this essentially means any products sent from these
Clearly the market sentiment is fearful, resulting in wiping out of all the gains post-Election, estimated to be over $3.3 Trillion dollars in market cap.
Why would Trump purposely make things more expensive for Americans?
Two main reasons:
Change consumer habits to buy American made products. Incentivize companies to manufacture in the US.
In theory, this would result in a stronger US economy—more stable jobs and less dependence on foreign countries.
Trump to get what he wants.
Renegotiate trade deals, stop illegal immigration and halting the flow of fentanyl.
These countries have retaliated by imposing their own tariffs, cancelling gov’t contracts with Elon Musk’s Starlink and China is allegedly prepared & has threatened to file a lawsuit with the World Trade Organization.
Although the US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutrick has suggested Trump might roll back tariffs on Canada and Mexico as early as this week.
Trump’s tariffs could strong arm both Canada & Mexico into an overnight Recession.
Research suggests Canada exported approximately $412.7 billion to the US in 2024, which is about 20.93% of its GDP.
It seems likely that Mexico exported around $505.9 billion to the US in 2024, accounting for roughly 27.93% of its GDP.
Whereas the US exported an estimated $349 billion to Canada and $334 billion to Mexico, accounting for roughly 2% of the US’s GDP.
Uhhh— that’s a big difference.
And no, this is not a crypto meme coin, this is NVIDIA, which basically what has held up and drove substantial returns for the stock market in recent years historic performances.
No Pain, No Gain! 📈
Could Trump be crashing the market on purpose?
Debt Drama 💰: We’ve got $7T due in the next 6 months. Pay it or refinance—no pressure, right? Trump’s crew isn’t sweating it outright, but they’re picky about the terms.
Rate Rebellion 🚫: Refinancing at 4%+? Nope, not when the 10-year Treasury was chilling at 4.8% earlier this year. They want that number way down.
Chaos Plan 🎭: How do you drop rates? Stir the pot with uncertainty—like tossing tariffs into the mix. Growth slows, markets wobble, and bam—everyone’s scared of stocks.
Bond Boom 📈: Investors ditch equities and snatch up bonds like it’s Black Friday. Yields tank (exactly what we need to refinance cheap), and the Fed gets the green light to cut rates, pushing them lower still.
Twist Time 🤔: Tariffs usually scream inflation and spike yields, but not here! The uncertainty’s so wild, stocks are out, bonds are in, and the 10-year’s dropping.
Poppy hopes this is just short term pain, for long term gains!
Time will tell— regardless of rain or shine— keep your head up & stay the course :)
Bible Verse
"Blessed is the one who perseveres under trial because, having stood the test, that person will receive the crown of life that the Lord has promised to those who love him." James 1:12
Reflection: This verse reminds us that facing our challenges head-on is not just a test of our will, but a path to deeper fulfillment and spiritual reward. Like the buffalo facing the storm, our courage to confront difficulties can lead to greater resilience and a profound sense of accomplishment. It also helps you quickly identify who is with you in your herd, willing to tough it out during the tough times.
History shows that financial crises are rarely surprises—they follow patterns. Thought-provoking insights on what might be coming next!